Nick Kling's Belmont Selections 7/19
Best Bet: Sweet Ransom, Race 8 (47-21-10-5 $97.40)
Longshot: Castle Harbour, Race 6 (47-5-4-9 $74.90)
RACE 1: NACASCOLO failed to fire going seven furlongs June 14. He may have been best May 31 when he had to wait for room and was outfinished by the winner, who has since won again. WINZALOT finished behind the top choice when they raced together May 31. He was not match for him that day, given their trips, but it was close enough that he could turn the tables. MAD BOB CAT (E) lost all chance last time when he tried to bear out going into the turn, then drifted again coming out of the turn. Entrymate Unigold has the class to win if ready off the bench.
RACE 2: PORTABLE ALPHA gets a narrow nod over the second choice because of pedigree. The colt is sired by Hook And Ladder, who is off to a good start, and the dam has produced two juvenile winners from three to race, suggesting precociousness. MAHOPAC debuts for trainer Mike Hushion, who is a 20 percent hitter with first time starters. The sire is new and unproven, but the morning works suggest he can run some. ABOVE ALL ODDS was very green in his July 2 unveiling. Trainer Allen Jerkens has worked the colt twice since and Jorge Chavez remains aloft. Improvement is likely.
RACE 3: PORONUI returns to turf, which appears to be his preferred surface. Ran well in spots June 15 and could have been second with a little luck. Trainer Clement is aces in turf sprints. YIELD BOGEY ran well in his May 24 debut, going the tiring seven furlongs. Cut back to six last time and showed improvement. Now adds lasix for the first time. HE STRUCK IT RICH pressed a solid pace and narrowly missed in his May 24 effort going seven furlongs. The John Kimmel trainee should benefit by the cut back to six panels.
RACE 4: RING BERNADETTE gets tested for class today. The Jimmy Jerkens-trained gelding has ripped off two wins in succession, the latter a blowout affair over modest rivals. WRITINGONTHEWALL has shown versatility, running well on dirt and turf, going routes and sprints. The addition of blinkers has not been a winning move for this barn, but he looms large on paper. FORTUNE FADED exits a solid effort in the June 1 New York Stallion Stakes. Runner-up Almost Silver came back to finish second to the unbeaten Tin Cup Chalice in the New York Derby.
RACE 5: TRUE REBEL comes off a decisive win at the previous class level. The gelding has been a gem of consistency this year, finishing in the money in all ten starts. Can handle the distance. SONNY'S THE ONE comes off a victory at the previous class level as well. That was his first start in a restricted claiming event on dirt, and his class showed. AKIN romped going a mile over this track two starts back. The Rick Dutrow trainee was overmatched last time and takes a steep drop to a winning level. SKYPA's May 17 dirt start is good enough to win this with a repeat. Gets a major rider switch.
RACE 6: UNITY gets one more chance before the A-1 Sauce comes out. His August 19 race at Saratoga was marred when he blew the final turn, and he was running well last time till costing himself the win with erratic behavior. DON'T FOOLI HOULI has been freshened up since narrowly missing at this distance May 24. In that event he had a tough post, but showed tactical speed and could have won. PANO'S LOVE has four seconds and a third from seven starts on grass. The Gary Sciacca trainee tries seven furlongs for the first time. CASTLE HARBOUR has enough pedigree to handle turf at this level. Has run well on synthetics.
RACE 7: IMPERIAL RIVER gets a timid nod in a race below par for the class level. The Tom Bush trainee broke his maiden two back, and raced competitively at this level last time. Switches to Eibar Coa. SAMMY'S TOY has a chance to improve at a price. He made his first start in over ten months last time in a sprint tightener. Stretches out to a route distance, at which he ran well last year. VICTORY ASSURED comes off his maiden win on the grass. Trainer Mark Hennig can win with last out graduates, and the switch to the inner turf course should only help him.
RACE 8: SWEET RANSOM may have been best at this distance June 6. The Bill Mott-trained filly was hemmed in at a crucial point and couldn't overcome the handicap. Gets a top grass rider. SALLY BOWLES exits the same race as the top choice. In that event the Mark Hennig trainee raced close to a solid pace when the Widener course was not kind to speed. WEST OF GIBRALTAR cuts back to the distance of her May 23 maiden win. In that event she rated kindly after breaking slowly. May not have liked setting the pace last time.
RACE 9: MUSIC NOTE (E) and entrymate Little Belle make a formidable coupling. Music Note has the pedigree to relish this distance and easily handled division leader Proud Spell last time. ACOMA has rattled off three consecutive wins after collecting third in her March unveiling. This filly has royal breeding, and could jump up if the top choice makes any mistakes. NEVER RETREAT has speed and could be more dangerous if the track comes up wet. Placed second last time after being impeded by the runner-up. Loses Alan Garcia.
RACE 10: FEROCIOUS WON cuts back to a distance where he has been first or second in half his tries. Drops sharply from a New York-bred allowance race. Won at this level two back. MASS CHARLES has his claiming price slashed in half after barking in a big way last time. The Greg Diprima trainee handled tougher in his previous pair. Gets a live rider. HALO'S TIGER drops to this level as well. The Pancho Martin-trained veteran narrowly missed when at this level May 25. Has his regular rider aloft. READY READ had no chance last time on a muddy, sealed track where the winner romped. Still managed to get the place.
Belmont Park Record: 169/528, $982.80
(c) The Record 2008
Heatseeker's Retirement Opens Up 2008 Breeders' Cup Classic Field
The 2008 running of the Gr. 1 $5M Breeders' Cup Classic could be a much more wide open affair than expected when this year's renewal takes place at Santa Anita on Oct. 25.
Gr. 1 Santa Anita Handicap hero Heatseeker, recent winner of the Californian Stakes in track-record time and one of the likely favorites for the Breeders' Cup premier event, has been retired. A grand looking chestnut with unlimited potential, Heatseeker had been improving rapidly since being transferred to the barn of Jerry Hollendorfer and appeared to be on-track for a top performance in this year's Classic before being scratched from the Gr. 1 Hollywood Gold Cup, where he was the odds-on choice.
Leading North American conditioner Steve Asmussen has charted a new course for last year's Classic winner Curlin. At this writing, the reigning Horse of the Year is scheduled to make his next start on the turf in anticipation of a trip to Paris in the fall for the Arc de Triomph, where he will try and become the first American horse to conquer the challenging race and the first to attempt it since Tom Role's sixth-place finish in 1965.
The loss of these two major players brings several horses into prominence that previously might have been considered minor participants. Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Big Brown hasn't been eliminated from the Classic picture yet and his future plans will become clearer after an anticipated start in the $1M Haskell Stakes at Monmouth on Aug. 3. Belmont Stakes winner Da'Tara is pointing towards the Gr. 1 Travers Stakes at Saratoga and a good showing there would likely lead him to the Classic.
Another 3-year-old of interest is Denis of Cork, runner-up in the Belmont and third in the Derby. His stock has been rising and his record at the distance is formidable.
Front-running Hollywood Gold Cup winner Mast Track vaulted himself onto the scene and Santa Anita Handicap and Gold Cup runner-up Go Between is consistently close at the finish. Add Pimlico Special winner Student Council and the inconsistent but talented Tiago to the fray and this year's Classic won't be short of horses in with a chance.
(c) BODOG
38-TO-1 AFTERTHOUGHT PULLS OFF WIRE-TO-WIRE VICTORY
ELMONT, N.Y. - In the days before the Belmont Stakes, Robert LaPenta kept waiting for someone, anyone, to ask him about Da' Tara.
"Not one writer mentioned Da' Tara to come in anywhere in the race except next to last," LaPenta said. "They kept saying he didn't belong in the race. But I had a feeling. I thought he would do very well."
The 3-year-old colt did well enough to spoil Big Brown's run at history Saturday, claiming a wire-to-wire victory as the longest shot in the nine-horse field at 38 to 1.
Da' Tara wasn't even considered for the Kentucky Derby, not after finishing 23 1/2 lengths behind Big Brown in the Florida Derby. Yet when Da' Tara finished second at the Barbaro Stakes on the Preakness undercard, LaPenta decided to put him in the punishing Belmont.
"Nick called about a week ago and he said, 'Are we crazy?' " LaPenta said. "And we said, 'Look, we're always crazy,' and we did it."
Da' Tara did it by zipping to the lead under jockey Alan Garcia, who hadn't ridden the colt since the horse's debut race at Belmont last September. Speed horses aren't supposed to manage the demanding 1 1/2-mile Belmont, and Zito conceded that he kept looking at Big Brown during the race, waiting for him to make his move.
Instead, it was Da' Tara who pulled away to give Zito his second Triple Crown spoiler in five years. Zito trained 2004 Belmont winner Birdstone, who edged past Smarty Jones in the final 70 yards.
"Big Brown's a champion,"
Zito said. "He just wasn't himself today and we took advantage of it."
* Denis of Cork had a solid run in the Triple Crown with a pair of in-the-money finishes.
Denis of Cork, named for a priest in County Cork, Ireland, rallied from 20th to take third in the Kentucky Derby. Trainer David Carroll elected to skip the Preakness. After the five-week break, Denis of Cork made another late move to get second Saturday in the Belmont Stakes.
It was an exhilarating moment for jockey Robbie Albarado when Denis of Cork pulled away from the struggling Big Brown.
"It gave me a rush," said Albarado who missed by a head in last year's Belmont with Curlin. "When you ride this horse, you have to wait on him but when he moves, he'll take you there."
* Phoenix Suns center Shaquille O'Neal attended the race, wearing the same red-and-white checkered jockey silks that he also donned for a popular commercial.
"Big Brown, baby," O'Neal said on the way to the grandstand as fans shouted his name.
Even though he made no bones about his choice, O'Neal said he didn't plunk down a portion of his sizable contract.
"Nah, I don't bet," he said. "You know I don't bet."
(c) 2008 - San Jose Mercury News
Triple frown for 'Brown'
ELMONT, N.Y. - Trainer Rick Dutrow leaned on the rail at the Detention Barn a half-hour after Big Brown had been pulled up in the Belmont Stakes and momentarily dropped his forehead onto his crossed arms.
Dutrow's thin brown hair was soaked. His blue shirt soggy. His hopes for history lost. Banished with the loss of a Triple Crown.
Da' Tara, trained by Nick Zito and a 38-1 shot, went straight to the lead out of the starting gate yesterday and wired the field, winning in 2 minutes, 29.65 seconds and paying $79. Behind him, coming out of the turn for home, jockey Kent Desormeaux shocked a surprisingly small announced crowd of 94,476 at Belmont Park by pulling up Big Brown and easing home far behind the rest of the field.
For Zito, who said he has made his living pulling upsets and playing the game no matter what the odds, it was the second time in five years one of his horses has stopped a Triple Crown bid. Birdstone beat the undefeated Smarty Jones in 2004.
"I got no idea what happened," Dutrow said an hour after the race. "I was looking for a problem, and so far I can't see a problem."
Dutrow said because he can see nothing wrong with Big Brown, he will scope him as a precautionary measure.
"I don't know what else to do to see if anything else is wrong," Dutrow said. "The horse kind of looks like he's fine to me."
Big Brown, 5-0 before yesterday, was attempting to become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978. And his trainer had said on a daily basis that he could not imagine his horse losing.
"It's a foregone conclusion," he said several times, adding, "We're running against not very good horses, and he's a very good horse."
Those comments were on the mind of trainer David Carroll yesterday after Denis of Cork came home second, 5 1/4 lengths behind Da' Tara.
"I'm not one little bit [sorry]," Carroll said when asked whether he felt bad for the crowd that had come to the track hoping to see a Triple Crown winner. "There is a right way of doing things and a wrong way. You win with class. You lose with class. I feel bad for the horse, but [Dutrow] basically called my horse a [expletive deleted] and I didn't like that."
Zito was kinder, saying that when Big Brown is on his game, "he is a special horse. The champ, Big Brown, didn't run his race today. He wasn't himself, and Da' Tara was."
Da' Tara, a son of Tiznow, came into the Belmont off a second-place finish in the Barbaro Stakes at Pimlico Race Course on Preakness Day. The victory was his first since breaking his maiden in January at Gulfstream Park.
Yesterday, Dutrow said he didn't know exactly how he felt, but even on a disappointing day the trainer found reason to be happy.
"We did really good with him," Dutrow said of his Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner. "It was a very disappointing race, but the horse looks like he's fine. Right now I can say it looks like he'll live a good life, even if he never races again.
"For him to be pulled up in a race, something has to not be right, so I have to try to find out what it is. I'm sure it's not the horse's fault, so there's nothing to be down on him about."
A share of Big Brown's breeding rights has already been sold for a reported $50 million, and his owners, IEAH Stables and Paul Pompa Jr., have said the future stallion will run twice more this year, in the Travers Stakes and in the Breeders' Cup Classic, if he is healthy.
Last night, Big Brown's racing future was unclear, but Dutrow said: "If he checks out 100 percent, we'll get him back into training. We'll go forward with him. If not, I'm sure we'll just do the next thing, which is to retire him.
"He's in good shape. He's OK. And we're very, very proud of him."
Big Brown broke well from the gate but ran into early trouble approaching Turn 1 when he ran up behind Tale of Ekati and Desormeaux was forced to pull him up sharply.
Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas said Desormeaux, who had faced strong criticism after he lost a Triple Crown bid on Real Quiet in 1998, rode a masterful race.
"Kent had to take hold of him there and he had a really good grip on him," Lukas said. "It wasn't tight enough to bother him, but it enabled him to settle in and get a perfect position. But the horse came up empty at the five-eighths pole. I think when Kent saw he wasn't going to finish 1-2-3-4, as hard as it was, he decided to wait another day."
Lukas suggested a change in Big Brown's training caused by a quarter crack in his left front hoof might have made the difference, but Dutrow brushed aside the suggestion.
"I can't believe missing three days made any difference at all to him," he said. "I just don't see it."
Desormeaux also didn't know what was wrong with Big Brown, who always in the past had responded like a machine, moving on command, and Desormeaux did not want to risk injury to the horse.
It was a conservative move but a reasonable one, given the recent events in major thoroughbred races.
Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro was catastrophically injured in the 2006 Preakness, two-time European champion George Washington had to be euthanized after breaking a leg in the 2007 Breeders' Cup Classic, and second-place finisher Eight Belles had to be euthanized after the filly shattered both her front ankles in this year's Derby.
"He was keen to go early on," Desormeaux said. "He broke so hard. I got him out early and just cantered down the backside. A couple of times he thought it was time to go and jumped into the bridle. But [when asked] I had no horse, and when I realized something was wrong, I knew he wouldn't be fifth.
"He's the best horse I've ever been on, so I took care of him."
(c) 2008 The Baltimore Sun
Belmont Betting Trends
The 2008 Belmont Stakes is fast approaching with the annual event being held on June 7 at Belmont Park in Elmont, New York. It's time to take a look at the betting trends and see how previous Belmont Stakes have played out for odds to win favorites.
Oddsmakers from Online Sports Book have made Triple Crown threat Big Brown a 2/7 favorite to win this year's Belmont Stakes. At those odds, Big Brown is probably the best bet to win at this year's Belmont, right? Well, not according to the results from previous Belmont Stakes.
Bet the 2008 Belmont Stakes
Only 44% of betting favorites have won at the Belmont Stakes. Worse yet, the odds-on favorite is only 12-for-30 and of the last five Belmont Stakes races, all five odds-on favorites were defeated.
Ironically, the last odds-on favorite to win at the Belmont Stakes was the last Triple Crown winner, which was Affirmed in 1978. Big Brown will go for horseracings' Triple Crown in 2008 after winning at the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes.
These odds shouldn't discourage bettors from taking Big Brown at this year's Belmont Stakes, but it's interesting to note that the odds-on favorite hasn't been as successful as one would think. It's definitely worth looking at some of the upset specials like Casino Drive and Behindatthebar who oddsmakers say are the only legitimate challengers to Big Brown's Triple Crown run.
Win $10,000 on the 2008 Belmont Stakes
"In handicapping, historical trends are one of the most important factors in determining future performance." said Mike Seaton of sports information site TheSpread. "If you tell me only 44% of Belmont winners were favorites I want to start looking at the other 66% to see if there are any similar horses in the 2008 Belmont Field."
"Big Brown is a very strong horse, don't get me wrong but he's not invincible." said Seaton. "A lot can happen in two and a half minutes."
140th Belmont Stakes Odds to win - Saturday June 7, 2008 - Belmont Park - Elmont, New York
Big Brown 2/7 - Big Brown Belmont
Casino Drive 9/2 - Casino Drive Belmont
Denis of Cork 10/1 - Denis of Cork Belmont
Tale of Ekati 16/1 - Tale of Ekati Belmont
Behindatthebar 25/1 - Behindatthebar Belmont
Macho Again 40/1 - Macho Again Belmont
Mint Lane 50/1 - Mint Lane Belmont
Odds on - Will there be a Triple Crown Winner in US Thoroughbred Racing in 2008
Yes - Triple Crown Winner in 2008 -350
No - Triple Crown winner in 2008 +250
(c)1999-2008 TheSpread
Horse Race Betting Pick of the Day - Belmont Park Race 8
It's crazy how things work in thoroughbred horse racing betting. The day after Edgar Prado takes the ride on Casino Drive in the 2008 Belmont Stakes, Big Brown's trainer, Richard Dutrow, puts Edgar Prado onto one of the favorites in Race 8 at Belmont Park.
Even though the Dutrow/Prado horse isn't my pick of the day, she certainly rates a very long look in this race.
Let's get to it!
Belmont Park Race 8
$55,000 n1x Allowance
6 furlongs on the dirt
Loving Vindication - - 4/1 morning line
This daughter of Vindication broke her maiden in her second lifetime start. Then, in her last race, she caught a muddy field at Churchill Downs and ended up finishing off the board. That doesn't bother me all that much. Loving Vindication is trained by Bobby Frankel and with the speed to her inside, I expect her to get a terrific trip right behind the Todd Pletcher, and morning line favorite, trained Tale of the West. Big Brown's jockey, Kent Desormeaux, gets the call on her. She will make her presence felt in this race.
Tale of the West - - 2/1 morning line
This Todd Pletcher trained miss absolutely dominated a maiden special weight field in her first lifetime start. She definitely has the ability to go gate to wire in this one, but being inside of Loving Vindication will do her no favors as Desormeaux can get Loving Vindication to relax right off of Tale of the West while Tale of the West pretty much has to gun it from the outset. Still, that maiden victory at the Kenneland meet was awfully impressive.
City Bird - - 2/1 morning line
Comes off a freshening for Dutrow and Prado and has every right to beat this field, but I'm not sold. She ran terribly in her last race, before the freshening, and I do think that she might need one. If she does win, watch the picture taking to see if Dutrow and Prado do an Ari Gold man-hug. Especially after Prado took the mount on Casino Drive!
Wagering Strategy
Because Loving Vindication ran so terribly in her last start, I have to believe that she will keep her odds. That's a good thing because both Tale of the West and City Bird could be going off at close to 7 to 5 or 8 to 5. In either case, I am going to bet Loving Vindication over Tale of the West and City Bird in an exacta and trifecta. I'm also going to bet Loving Vindication to win and place.
(c) 1994-2008 BetUS
Another LI horse to run in the Derby
BY CHRISTINA HERNANDEZ | christina.hernandez@newsday.com
3:45 PM EDT, May 3, 2008
Big Brown, a horse co-owned by a Bethpage native and with 3-1 odds to win Saturday's Kentucky Derby, may be Long Island's best shot at the title.
But Big Truck, another colt with a local owner, also is among the 20 contenders in the 134th annual Run for the Roses. The New York-bred Big Truck, who won the Tampa Bay Derby in March and races at Belmont and Saratoga last year, is owned by Eric Fein of Jericho, the owner of a title insurance business in Syosset.
The bay colt will take post No. 7 for the race, set to begin minutes after 6 p.m. His odds of winning are 50-1. Fein bought the horse last year for $90,000.
Big Truck's trainer is Barclay Tagg, who trained the 2003 Derby winner, New-York-bred gelding Funny Cide. Funny Cide went on to win the Preakness but missing winning the Triple Crown when he finished third in the Belmont Stakes.
Copyright (c) 2008, Newsday Inc.
|
